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Ted Postol: Why a Missile-Defense System Can Never Work * space weaponry insiders
1 July 2001
1) LA Times Interviews Ted Postol: "Why a Missile-Defense System Can Never Work"
2) Star Wars Inc. The men and the money behind space weaponry
3) Why Wasn't Kissinger Asked About War Crimes Charges?
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1) Why a Missile-Defense System Can Never Work
Los Angeles Times
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/laweekly/20010629/lo/26047_1.html
Friday June 29 05:00 PM EDT
Why a Missile-Defense System Can Never Work
By Joshuah Bearman LA Weekly Writer
Ever since W. made missile defense a central feature of his campaign, boosters of all stripes have been salivating over the opportunity to get their various pet Star Wars projects funded. There are plans for putting missile defense in the ocean, in the air and in space. There are even researchers working on airplane-mounted lasers and killer satellites. Recently W. announced that he plans to expand Clinton's already-contentious limited missile-defense research and deploy a comprehensive system over the objections of our allies.
The problem with all this is that none of it works. These systems use imprecise technology to track their targets, and most tests so far have failed. Last July, in the most recent trial run of the "hit to kill" vehicles currently being developed, the defensive rocket sailed wide of its target in an embarrassingly harmless arc high over the Pacific.
Ted Postol, a physicist and former Pentagon adviser who is now a professor of science, technology and national-security policy at MIT, is a leading critic of missile defense. Building a $60-billion-plus system, he argues, provides the worst of both worlds: no effective defense and less international stability. In a telephone interview from his MIT office, Postol explains why the so-called kill vehicles won't kill anything, why having them will make the world more dangerous, and why the whole scheme is as dumb now as when Ronald Reagan was seduced by the Star Wars fantasy.
L.A. WEEKLY:
First, maybe you could describe a little bit about how the missile-defense system works.
TED POSTOL:
Basically, it is a system of radars that try to track objects in space and an interceptor, which is a rocket booster with a device mounted on top called a kill vehicle. The kill vehicle weighs maybe 120 or 130 pounds, and it looks like a sort of telescope with small rocket motors on it. The kill vehicle gets launched towards the target of concern ・or targets, as you'd expect in a real-world scenario.
Does it all happen quickly?
Yes. The rocket booster accelerates the kill vehicle to a very high speed ・between 7 and 8-and-a-half kilometers per second ・and the incoming warhead is itself traveling near that speed. So the crossing speed is quite high. This is why accuracy is important. But the system is not very accurate. The kill vehicle is launched a few minutes before the actual flyby, but it is launched to a point in space where the system has calculated that it will be near incoming targets. And only there does the kill vehicle open its eyes, so to speak, to look for the targets. And when the kill vehicle opens its eyes, it's a very small field of view, perhaps 1 degree on a side. And then it has about 60 seconds to observe and home in on its target.
So the kill vehicle is not tracking the incoming missile the entire way. It goes to what it thinks is the vicinity, and then only has a brief moment to meet the target.
Right. It is a projected interception point calculated by the radar ・with some uncertainty, I might add.
I understand that the infrared sensors of the system are an issue too. The tracking system on the kill vehicle sees the incoming missiles as ・
Points of light. Like little stars.
And the resolution of these sensors is not very good.
That's part of the problem. There's no dimensional information.
Is that a technological limitation that can be overcome? Will we be able to make more accurate sensors in a few years?
No, that limitation will not be overcome, and even if it were improved, it would not entirely solve the accuracy problem.
And, if I understand correctly, the reason increased resolution wouldn't solve the problem is that even a better image would still not allow the kill vehicle to distinguish between actual warheads and decoys.
Yes. For example, say there's a warhead flying through space, tumbling end over end as warheads do. And say there's also a decoy balloon shaped like a warhead, also tumbling end over end. There would be no observable difference that would allow the sensor ・even a better one ・to determine which was the warhead. This is the fundamental problem. This kind of system is designed to work in the vacuum of space, and in the vacuum of space, the two would behave exactly alike. In space, it is extraordinarily easy to deploy decoys.
What other kinds of decoys are there, and how do they affect the infrared signals?
You could take a decoy balloon, for example, and paint big stripes on it so that its signal scintillates like that of a tumbling warhead. Or tethering objects to a warhead would be a way to defeat the system for sure. Tethered flares, for example ・they would completely dominate the infrared signal. You wouldn't be able to see the warhead at all. Or you could throw flares out freely, and the system would have no way of telling one from the other.
And would that mean a total miss? How precise does the intercepting kill vehicle have to be?
It has to be precise within a fraction of a meter.
That's a tall order.
Yes. It's ridiculous to believe that our potential adversaries would be able to build ICBMs and warheads but not be able to devise these kinds of countermeasures.
You've said that the Pentagon went easy on its own tests of the systems. They didn't use these kinds of decoys.
They didn't do anything. First, their data showed clearly that the sensors wouldn't be able to distinguish tumbling warheads from tumbling decoys. So in the actual test series, they modified the tests to never deal with those kinds of decoys. They removed that kind of threat from their test program in order to claim they can build a system that's workable.
Tell me about the test of the system last July, which failed altogether.
That test was an extraordinary set of failures. First, the only targets were a warhead and a large balloon. The balloon is almost 10 times brighter than the warhead. There was no discrimination necessary. They told the kill vehicle ahead of time, "You are going to see two objects ・a large bright object and a less-bright one. Now, go after the less-bright one." Even if it had gone well, it would have proved nothing because it was the simplest possible situation you can imagine. But the test warhead and decoy didn't deploy properly; the kill vehicle didn't deploy properly. They screwed up the whole thing.
Clinton used this test as a reason for delaying the decision to employ the National Missile Defense program, citing the uncertain technology. But the current administration has signaled its interest in building the system. Whether or not it works.
And we've been talking about what is called a midflight interception, right?
Right. This is not a boost-phase interception. This happens many hundreds of kilometers in altitude, where there's no atmosphere.
What about a system that tries to intercept the missiles at a different point in the trajectory?
A boost-phase interception or a re-entry interception, that is where the missile is exiting or re-entering the atmosphere, would make decoying much harder.
Let me ask you about that. Some, including Bush's advisers, propose boost-phase interception as a more workable alternative. How feasible is it?
Well, there are a lot of caveats here. I am not an advocate of a boost-phase system. But I will say that I have analyzed it more than anyone else. If the threat is North Korea, and they're using a fairly primitive missile technology, you could build a system of radars and interceptors that would have a very good chance of getting those missiles.
But a good booster-phase system still wouldn't be able to answer a large-scale attack or even a limited attack from missiles launched inland, from China, for example, or even Iran for that matter.
Right. Well, let me say this. Suppose that I can build a defense system that is so capable and robust that no missile could get through ・100 percent effective. Then, you might have a case for it. I say "might" because the likely response from our adversaries would be to try to develop weapons with different modes of delivery or to concentrate on short-range missiles [which are much harder to intercept because they are in the air less time] or to threaten our allies. So increased security for us, in this optimistic case, would come at the expense of arms control and the security of our allies. Now the other extreme, which is the situation we currently have, and will continue to have, is that defense, even under the most optimal conditions, is unlikely to work. But we will provoke the reaction anyway. This is the worst of both worlds: The defense has no capability, while also prompting our adversaries to step up the threat.
Is there any system that will ever work effectively, or is the whole idea a bust?
Ever?
Right. There are new proposals all the time. The most recent idea is lasers mounted on airplanes.
Well, a laser on an airplane has some potential to shoot down an ICBM. Now there's an important caveat there as well. It's not yet demonstrated that lasers have the power or beam quality that would make it effective. And maybe they will. On the other hand, a laser can only destroy a rocket in powered flight, which means that it will target the booster, leaving the warhead or biological payload or whatever else is in there to fall to Earth before it gets here. That would mean a WMD [Weapons of Mass Destruction] payload falling somewhere else, like in Canada. And that might bother the Canadians.
So lasers or other systems, even if effective, wouldn't solve all the ancillary problems of missile defense: no protection against short-range missiles; no protection for allies; and the slippery slope of arms escalation and even militarizing space.
Right. The question always should be: What do you get in relation to the cost? And, with missile defense ・at least all forms of missile defense that will be available for the foreseeable future ・the answer is: not a lot. My own view is that it is important to analyze these things in a comprehensive way, as opposed to dismissing them out of hand. Because there's people out there selling noodles, as the Israelis would say. And the systems sometimes have some merit, but they get oversold ・way oversold in the case of what's on the table today. Missile defense has been completely politicized.
It's not only politicized, but it has become quite vitriolic.
Oh yeah. I had one guy threaten to attack me. A guy who works for Thad Cochran [Mississippi's Republican senator, who is an ardent supporter of missile defense] wanted to have a fistfight with me. It was in London, and I was sure he was going to hit me, but a bunch of British officers fell on him just before he got to me.
Maybe you need a Congressional Staffer Defense System.
Right. Well, that's the mindset of some of these guys.
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2) Star Wars Inc. The men and the money behind space weaponry
http://www.valleyadvocate.com/articles/starwars.html
Please check the above link for a current article in a weekly publication in the Connecticut River Valley area. The following is a letter to the editor, which will hopefully be published in next week's edition.
June 30, 2001
Re: Valley Advocate -- June 28-July 4, 2001 Issue
http://www.valleyadvocate.com/articles/starwars.html
Letter to the Editor:
The Advocate's cover story on the men and money behind space weaponry is appreciated and timely. This is when Congress makes decisions about the next year's spending of taxpayer dollars. However, Ericson's article made it appear that Star Wars and the waste of our tax dollars are "inevitable" (in light of a bought and paid for Congress). This is the defeatist attitude that the Bush administration and Darth Vadar are counting on. Why not include more on the people and nations working to stop an evil empire?
The Global Network Against Weapons and Nuclear Power in Space is conducting a series of conferences and protests around the world, including the International Day of Protest to Stop the Militarization of Space on October 13, 2001. So far one hundred and sixty-three organizations are endorsing it, and more than fifty action sites have already been designated. Hopefully one in our Valley will surface; maybe the Advocate will cover this side of the story.
UN General Secretary, Kofi Annan, in his opening remarks to the Third United Nations Conference on Exploration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space in July 1999 said, "Above all, we must guard against the misuse of outer space. We recognized early on that a legal regime was needed to prevent it from being another arena of military confrontation." Annan continued "..But there is much more to be done. We must not allow this century, so plagued with war and suffering, to pass on its legacy, when the technology at our disposal will be even more awesome. We cannot view the expanse of space as another battleground for our earthly conflicts."
For more information on October 13 visit the Global Network's website: www.space4peace.org and check out news fit to transmit in the post Cassini flyby era at www.flybynews.com. Maybe we will all respond in time with the "force" to stop the arms race from entering this new domain before it is too late.
Jonathan Mark
Flyby News
P.O. Box 1999
Wendell Depot, MA 01380
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3) Why Wasn't Kissinger Asked About War Crimes Charges?
June 29, 2001
From: "FAIR-L"
Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger was summoned last month to appear at the French Palace of Justice to answer questions about murders and disappearances in Chile in the 1970s. While the story was carried by major European news outlets, it has received relatively little coverage in U.S. media.
French authorities wanted to ask Kissinger, who was visiting Paris, about Operation Condor, the terror network set up by the governments of Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, Ecuador and Bolivia. Evidence that the U.S. government was aware of and lent support to Operation Condor has been available for years (see The Nation, 8/9-16/99; New York Times, 3/6/01). The French magistrate who summoned Kissinger was particularly interested in what light he might shed on the disappearances of five French nationals who disappeared in Chile during or shortly after the U.S.-supported coup there in 1973.
But the French courts would learn nothing from Kissinger, who left town the day after being summoned without answering any questions.
After the episode in France, Kissinger did a lengthy, one-on-one interview with PBS's Charlie Rose (6/20/01). Kissinger also appeared alone with CNN's Wolf Blitzer (6/21/01) and Fox News Channel's Paula Zahn (6/13/01). None of the interviews even mentioned the French attempt to question Kissinger about human rights abuses. Nor did any of the journalists bring up the question of whether Kissinger might be indictable on war crimes charges, as journalist Christopher Hitchens argued in a two-part Harper's magazine article (2/01, 3/01).
Was there an agreement that the interviewers would avoid raising such uncomfortable issues for Kissinger? Charlie Rose was recently accused of making such an agreement with Roger Ailes, the chairman of Fox News Channel. In an interview with the New York Times Magazine (6/24/01), Ailes claimed that he had written assurance from Rose that he would not be asked about "politics" during his May 22 interview. Yvette Vega, the executive producer for the Charlie Rose Show, told FAIR that she was unaware of any such deal with Ailes.
But Kissinger himself seemed to have this kind of agreement with the National Press Club in Washington, DC, where Kissinger spoke on June 21. Noting that none of the questions asked of Kissinger, chosen from written questions submitted by the audience, dealt with war crimes or human rights investigations, journalists Russell Mokhiber and Robert Weissman asked Press Club moderator Richard Koonce if there was some sort of arrangement to avoid these topics.
According to Mokhiber and Weissman, Koonce explained that there was a "definite sensitivity" to those kinds of questions, and that Kissinger "was afraid that if we got into a discussion of that, for the vast majority of people that, it would take so much time to explain all of the context, that, you know, he preferred to avoid that."
Which raises the question: If a former Secretary of State receiving a summons about his knowledge of murder, torture and disappearances is not news, then what is?
FAIR ACTION: Please contact Charlie Rose and ask why he failed to ask Henry Kissinger about the newsworthy issues of human rights investigations and war crimes charges. You might also contact the National Press Club to voice your disappointment that journalists were not allowed to press Kissinger on these matters.
CONTACT:
The Charlie Rose Show
mailto:charlierose@pbs.org
Phone: 212-940-1600
National Press Club
Melinda Cooke, Assistant to Club President Dick Ryan
E-mail: mcooke@npcpress.org
Fax: 202-662-7537
As always, please remember that your comments are taken more seriously if you maintain a polite tone. Please cc fair@fair.org with your correspondence.
Read Mokhiber and Weissman's column, "Censorship at the National Press Club," at:
http://lists.essential.org/pipermail/corp-focus/2001/000077.html
Read "The Fugitive" by Christopher Hitchens (The Nation, 6/25/01)
http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20010625&s=hitchens
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